The Role of Possession Stats in Score Predictions

If you have ever looked at a post-match graphic and thought that the team with 65% possession should have won, you have fallen into one of football's most persistent traps. Possession statistics are everywhere. They are on the screen at half-time, they fill pre-match analysis segments, and they are the first thing many people check when reviewing a game they missed.

But here is the uncomfortable truth: possession is a remarkably poor predictor of match outcomes. And if you are using it as a major input for your scoreline predictions, it is probably hurting your results more than helping them.

The possession myth

The idea that more possession equals more goals has its roots in the Barcelona era under Pep Guardiola. That team dominated games through relentless ball retention and won almost everything. The conclusion many people drew was straightforward: control the ball, control the game, win the match.

The problem is that Barcelona did not win because they had lots of possession. They won because they had Messi, Xavi, and Iniesta executing a system that happened to involve lots of possession. The possession was a byproduct of their quality and approach, not the cause of their success.

In the Premier League, the correlation between possession percentage and match outcome is surprisingly weak. Teams regularly win with less than 40% possession. Teams regularly lose while holding 60%+ of the ball. The stat on its own tells you very little about who scored more goals.

Why possession misleads

Possession without penetration

Having the ball does not mean you are doing anything dangerous with it. A team can pass the ball sideways across the back four for minutes at a time, racking up possession percentage without ever threatening the goal. This kind of sterile possession is common when a team is struggling to break down a well-organised defence.

When you see a team averaging 60% possession, ask yourself: are they creating chances with that ball, or are they recycling it in safe areas? Expected goals (xG) is a far better indicator of whether a team is actually threatening. A team with 40% possession and 2.5 xG is more dangerous than a team with 65% possession and 0.8 xG.

Deliberate low possession