The xG Revolution: What Expected Goals Means for Your Predictions

Expected goals - or xG - has gone from an obscure analytics concept to a mainstream talking point in just a few years. But beyond the TV graphics and pundit debates, xG is genuinely useful for anyone trying to predict football scores.

What Is xG?

At its simplest, xG measures the quality of a chance. Every shot is assigned a value between 0 and 1 based on historical data - how often a shot from that position, at that angle, with that body part, has resulted in a goal. A penalty typically has an xG of around 0.76, while a header from 12 yards might sit at 0.08.

Why It Matters for Predictions

Teams that consistently create high-xG chances are generally better than their results suggest if they're not converting. Conversely, a team on a winning streak but with low xG is living on borrowed time. By comparing a team's actual goals scored to their xG over a 5-10 match window, you can spot which teams are likely to improve and which are heading for a dip.

Putting It Into Practice

Before each gameweek, check the xG tables alongside the real table. If a team is 10th in the league but 5th on xG, they're probably better than their results show. Factor that into your predictions. This approach won't win every week, but over a full season it gives you a significant edge over those relying on the actual table alone.