The Big Six: What to Expect When the Top Teams Play

Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham. The big six. These matches are the hardest to predict in the Premier League - and often the most important for your prediction league standing.

The reason they are tricky is that normal patterns break down when the top teams face each other. The usual rules about home advantage, scoreline frequency, and form become less reliable. But that does not mean big six matches are unpredictable. They just follow different patterns.

Big six vs big six: a different kind of match

When two top six sides meet, the dynamic changes completely. These are not matches where one team dominates possession and the other sits back. Both sides want the ball, both press high, and both have enough quality to score.

The result is that big six head-to-heads produce more goals than the league average. While the typical Premier League match averages about 2.7 total goals, big six clashes average closer to 3.1. That might not sound like much, but it shifts the probability towards scorelines like 2-1 and 2-2 rather than the 1-0 results that dominate the rest of the league.

Key patterns in big six clashes

• Draws are more common - roughly 30% of big six head-to-heads end level, compared to 25% across the whole league
• The home side still wins more often, but the advantage is smaller than in other matches
• Clean sheets are rare - both teams tend to score in around 65% of these fixtures
• Scorelines of 2-1, 1-1, and 2-2 come up more often than in other match types

If you normally follow a low-scoring prediction strategy, big six matches are where you might want to adjust upwards slightly. A 2-1 instead of a 1-0. A 1-1 instead of a 0-0.

Big six at home vs the rest

This is where the big six are at their most predictable. When Arsenal host a bottom-half side, or City welcome a promoted team, the result is rarely in doubt. The question is how many they score.

The home advantage that exists across the league is amplified for the top six playing at their own grounds. Their home win rates typically sit above 60%, and many of those wins are by two or more goals.