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The Top 10 Most Unpredictable Premier League Fixtures | ScoreBadger
Premier League Intelligence
9 min read
The Top 10 Most Unpredictable Premier League Fixtures
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ScoreBadger
Some fixtures are straightforward. When the league leaders host a newly promoted side, you can pick a home win with reasonable confidence. But certain Premier League matchups produce chaos with alarming regularity. The form book goes out the window, league position becomes irrelevant, and anything can happen. If you are playing on ScoreBadger or any other prediction game, these are the fixtures that will make or break your gameweek.
We have looked at historical results, scoreline variance, and the frequency of upset results to compile a list of the ten Premier League fixtures that most consistently defy expectations. If you can figure out even a slight edge in these matches, you will gain ground on everyone else in your league.
10. Newcastle vs Tottenham
On paper, this should be a reasonably predictable fixture. Two established clubs, usually separated by a few league places, with clear tactical identities. In practice, this match produces chaos. Since Newcastle's return to the top flight, this fixture has seen scorelines ranging from 6-1 to 1-0, with very little in between.
The issue is that both teams tend to play open, attacking football, which creates a volatile mix. When two sides that both want to play on the front foot meet, the result swings on individual moments - a counter-attack here, a defensive error there. For predictors, the best approach is to expect goals. A 2-2 or 2-1 is more likely than a cagey 0-0.
9. Everton vs Liverpool
Merseyside derbies are inherently unpredictable because form goes out the window. We covered this in our piece on predicting local rivalries, but Everton vs Liverpool deserves its own mention. Liverpool might be ten places higher in the table and it will not matter. The atmosphere at Goodison Park (or its successor) creates an intensity that distorts normal patterns.
Everton have pulled off results against Liverpool in seasons where they have been otherwise dreadful. The emotional investment from both sets of fans lifts the underdog and unsettles the favourite. If Liverpool are heavy favourites, consider a narrower margin than you would normally predict. A 1-0 or 1-1 is more likely than the 3-0 the league table might suggest.
8. Wolves vs Manchester City
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This fixture has been a nightmare for prediction league players for years. Wolves at Molineux have consistently given Manchester City problems, even during City's dominant title-winning runs. The tight pitch, the organised defensive structure, and the willingness to play direct football on the counter have produced some genuinely shocking results.
City are rarely bad at Molineux - they usually dominate possession and create chances - but converting those chances has been a recurring problem. If you are predicting this fixture, a 1-1 draw or a tight 1-0 win for either side is a smarter shout than the 3-0 City stroll that everyone else in your league will predict.
7. Arsenal vs Chelsea
London derbies between these two are always electric, and the historical record is remarkably balanced. Over the Premier League era, neither side has established clear dominance in this fixture. It is one of those matchups where the big six truly live up to their billing.
What makes it particularly hard to predict is that the tactical battle changes drastically depending on which managers are in charge. This fixture has produced 0-0 draws and 5-3 thrillers in consecutive seasons. The best advice is to avoid predicting a comfortable win for either side. This match has a habit of being tight, tense, and decided by small margins.
6. Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park is one of those grounds where visiting big clubs simply do not perform as expected. The atmosphere is hostile, the pitch is tight, and Palace teams over the years have been organised, physical, and willing to scrap.
Manchester United's record at Selhurst Park is patchy at best. Even during strong seasons, United have dropped points here with surprising regularity. The reverse fixture at Old Trafford is more predictable, but the trip to south London is a genuine banana skin. If United are in inconsistent form, a Palace win is not the wildcard prediction it might look like on paper.
5. Brighton vs Tottenham
This might surprise some people, but Brighton vs Tottenham has become one of the most chaotic fixtures in recent years. Both teams play possession-based, progressive football, which sounds like it should produce a thoughtful chess match. Instead, it produces absolute mayhem.
The underlying stats for these matches are often wild - high expected goals for both sides, lots of chances created, plenty of individual errors. The results have swung in both directions with little regard for league position. This is exactly the kind of fixture where underdogs win more than people think. Predict goals and pick a side. Either way, do not expect a boring match.
4. Leicester vs Tottenham
Going back through the Premier League years, this fixture has produced an absurd number of high-scoring matches. Something about the way these two teams set up against each other creates openness at both ends. The historical average goals per game in this fixture is well above the league mean.
For predictors, this is actually useful information. If you know a fixture tends to produce goals, you can adjust your scorelines accordingly. Instead of a standard 1-0 or 1-1, lean towards 2-2, 3-2, or even 3-1. You might not get the exact score, but you are more likely to get the result right.
3. Bournemouth vs Any Top-Six Side
Bournemouth at home to any of the traditional big clubs has become a fixture that produces shock results far more often than it should. The compact stadium, the energy from the crowd, and Bournemouth's willingness to play their natural game regardless of the opposition have created some memorable upsets.
In prediction league terms, these are the matches where everyone else predicts a comfortable away win and you can pick up serious ground by calling something different. A Bournemouth draw or narrow win might feel bold, but the historical frequency of upset results in these fixtures makes it less outlandish than it looks.
2. Any Match Involving Newly Promoted Teams in August
The opening weeks of the season are prediction chaos for a specific reason: nobody knows how good the promoted teams actually are. The summer transfer window reshapes squads, pre-season form means nothing, and the first few weeks are essentially a calibration period.
Newly promoted teams are particularly volatile. They might win 3-1 in their first match and then lose their next four. Or they might get hammered on the opening day and then quietly pick up points for the next month. Until you have six or seven matches of data, any prediction involving a promoted side is essentially guesswork. This links to what we know about how to stay consistent early in the season - the answer is to be cautious with promoted teams and accept lower confidence.
1. Tottenham vs Almost Anyone
If this list has a recurring theme, it is Tottenham. And that is because Spurs have been the single most unpredictable team in the Premier League for several years running. They can beat anyone on their day and lose to anyone on their off days, often in consecutive matches.
What makes Tottenham fixtures so hard to predict is the sheer range of possible outcomes. They might win 4-1 at home to a mid-table side one week and lose 3-0 to a team fighting relegation the next. There is almost no consistency in results, which means there is almost no reliable pattern for predictors to use.
The practical advice? Do not try to be clever with Spurs fixtures. Predict a narrow result in either direction and accept that you are flipping a coin. Over a full season, you will get some right and some wrong, and that is the best anyone can do.
How to Approach Unpredictable Fixtures
Knowing which fixtures are unpredictable does not mean you can predict them. But it does help you manage your expectations and your strategy. Here is a practical approach to use on ScoreBadger:
Accept that some fixtures are essentially coin flips and do not spend too long agonising over them
Use the unpredictability as a chance to differentiate yourself - if everyone else predicts the obvious result, a contrarian pick can gain you ground
Keep your scoreline predictions tight for volatile fixtures - 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 cover the most likely outcomes
Do not build your gameweek strategy around getting these matches right - focus on the more predictable fixtures for your points
The best predictors do not try to master the unpredictable. They identify which matches are unreliable, make a reasonable guess, and focus their energy on the fixtures where form, ability, and home advantage give them a genuine edge.
