How to Use Betting Odds for Football Score Predictions | ScoreBadger
Prediction Strategy
8 min read
What Bookmakers' Odds Tell You About Match Predictions
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You do not need to be a gambler to benefit from betting odds. Bookmakers spend millions on data teams, algorithms, and pricing models. The numbers they publish are, in effect, a free probability estimate for every football match - updated in real time, available to anyone who knows how to read them.
At their core, odds are a way of expressing probability. A bookmaker looks at a match, estimates the likelihood of each outcome, and then sets prices accordingly. When you see odds of 2.50 for a home win, the bookmaker is essentially saying they think there is roughly a 40% chance of it happening.
The crucial thing to understand is that bookmakers are remarkably good at this. They get it wrong on individual matches all the time - football is unpredictable, after all - but across thousands of matches, their probability estimates are among the most accurate publicly available. They have a financial incentive to get it right, which tends to focus the mind.
How to Convert Odds to Probabilities
The maths is straightforward. If you are looking at decimal odds (the format most commonly used in the UK and Europe), the formula is:
Implied probability = 1 / decimal odds x 100
Here are some common examples:
Odds of 1.50 = 66.7% implied probability (strong favourite)
Odds of 2.00 = 50.0% implied probability (coin flip)
Odds of 2.50 = 40.0% implied probability
Odds of 3.00 = 33.3% implied probability
Odds of 4.00 = 25.0% implied probability
Odds of 6.00 = 16.7% implied probability (big underdog)
Odds of 10.00 = 10.0% implied probability (very unlikely)
If you add up the implied probabilities for all three outcomes in a match (home win, draw, away win), you will notice the total comes to more than 100%. That extra percentage - typically 5-10% - is the bookmaker's margin, sometimes called the overround or the vig. It is how they make money. For our purposes, you can largely ignore it. The relative probabilities between outcomes are what matter.
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What the Odds Tell You That Stats Alone Cannot
Here is where it gets interesting for predictors. Odds reflect information that simple statistics miss:
Team News and Injuries
When a key player is ruled out, the odds shift within minutes. If you check odds on a Thursday and see that a home win has drifted from 1.80 to 2.20, something has changed. Maybe the star striker is injured, or the manager has confirmed rotation. The market reacts faster than most stats websites update.
Tactical Context
Bookmakers factor in things like fixture congestion, whether a team has a Champions League match three days later, and whether the manager is likely to rotate the squad. These details do not show up in a form table but they absolutely affect results.
Market Intelligence
Thousands of sharp bettors and professional syndicates put their money where their analysis leads them. When they move the market, the odds shift. You are effectively crowdsourcing the analysis of thousands of informed people by reading the final odds before a match kicks off.
Using Odds to Identify Match Types
Rather than staring at raw numbers, try categorising matches into types based on their odds profile. This makes it much easier to choose your scoreline predictions.
Heavy Favourite at Home (home win odds below 1.50)
These are your Manchester City at home to a newly promoted side scenarios. The implied probability of a home win is above 67%. In these matches, the most common results are 2-0, 3-0, and 2-1. Do not overthink it. Back a comfortable home win with a clean sheet, or a single away goal at most. Our guide on the Big Six covers what to expect from these fixtures.
Slight Favourite (home win odds 1.70-2.20)
This is the most common match type in the Premier League. There is a moderate lean towards the home side but plenty of uncertainty. These matches produce the widest range of results. The 1-1 and 1-0 are your safest options, but 2-1 either way is also reasonable.
Coin Flip (all three outcomes between 2.80-3.50)
When the odds are tightly bunched, the bookmakers are saying they genuinely do not know what will happen. These are the hardest matches to predict but also where the draw becomes most valuable. A 1-1 or even a 0-0 can be a smart pick in these fixtures.
Away Favourite (away win odds below 2.00)
When the away team is favoured, it usually means a top side is visiting a weaker one. But home advantage still exists, so these matches are less predictable than you might think. The away team wins less often than the odds suggest when you compare it to home favourite scenarios. A tight 1-0 away or a 1-1 draw are solid picks.
Reading Odds Movements
The odds you see on Monday are not the same as the odds on Saturday morning. Following how they change tells you a story.
Shortening odds (getting lower) mean money is coming in for that outcome. If a home win goes from 2.00 to 1.70 during the week, something is driving confidence - probably positive team news or tactical information.
Drifting odds (getting higher) mean the opposite. If the home win drifts from 2.00 to 2.40, the market has become less confident. Check the news - there is usually a reason.
Steam moves are sharp, sudden shifts where odds drop dramatically in a short window. These almost always come from professional bettors acting on strong information. If you spot one before making your predictions, pay attention.
You do not need to monitor odds obsessively. Just check them twice: once when the fixtures are announced (usually Monday or Tuesday) and once on Friday evening or Saturday morning before you lock in your predictions.
Where to Find Odds Without Opening a Betting Account
You do not need to sign up to a bookmaker to see their odds. Several free websites aggregate odds from multiple bookmakers:
Oddschecker - shows odds from all major bookmakers side by side
Google - search for a match and odds often appear in the results
BBC Sport - shows selected odds on their football pages
FlashScore - includes odds alongside live scores and statistics
Football prediction community forums often discuss odds movements
Comparing odds across multiple bookmakers also gives you a sense of how certain or uncertain the market is. If all bookmakers agree closely, the probability estimate is strong. If there is wide disagreement, the match is genuinely hard to call.
Combining Odds With Your Other Research
Odds work best as a confirmation tool rather than the sole basis for your predictions. Here is a practical workflow:
First, do your own analysis. Check the form table, look at head-to-head records, consider home advantage, and read up on team news.
Second, check the odds. Do they agree with your assessment? If you think a match is a coin flip but the odds show a clear favourite, ask yourself what you might be missing. If your analysis aligns with the market, you can feel more confident in your pick.
Third, look for disagreements. The most interesting situations are when your analysis points one way and the odds point another. Sometimes you are right and the market is wrong - these are the matches where underdogs win more than you think. But be honest with yourself about how often that is actually the case.
Treating odds as certainties - a 70% probability still means the other outcome happens 30% of the time
Only looking at match result odds - correct score odds exist too and give you even more granular data
Ignoring the draw - the draw is consistently the most undervalued outcome in betting markets
Changing your predictions every time the odds move slightly - small shifts are noise, not signal
Confusing your gambling instincts with analytical thinking - we are using odds as data, not picking winners to bet on
A Quick Reference for Your Predictions
Here is a simplified guide you can use each gameweek:
Home win priced below 1.50: predict a comfortable home win (2-0, 3-0, 3-1)
Home win priced 1.50-2.00: predict a tight home win (1-0, 2-1) or a low draw (1-1)
All outcomes priced 2.80-3.50: lean towards a draw (1-1, 0-0) or a one-goal result
Away win priced below 2.00: predict a narrow away win (0-1, 1-2) but consider the draw
Any outcome priced above 5.00: it could happen, but do not build your gameweek around it
This is deliberately simple. The goal is not to create a perfect model - it is to give yourself a quick sanity check before locking in your gameweek predictions. Pair it with proper research and you will make fewer gut-feel errors.
The Bottom Line
Betting odds are the most accessible, most information-rich probability tool available to football predictors. You do not need to bet a penny to use them. Learn to read decimal odds, convert them to implied probabilities, and check them as part of your weekly research routine.
They will not tell you the exact score. Nothing will. But they will tell you what thousands of analysts and data models think is most likely to happen - and that is a very useful starting point when you are trying to pick the right scoreline for every match.
Most predictors play it safe with 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines. But sometimes the right call is a hammering. Here is how to spot when a blowout is coming and have the guts to predict it.
