How VAR Decisions Affect Your Score Predictions

Since its introduction to the Premier League, VAR has become one of the most debated topics in English football. Love it or hate it, it changes match outcomes in ways that matter for anyone trying to predict scorelines. Disallowed goals, penalty awards, and red card reversals all shift the final score - sometimes dramatically.

If you are making predictions each week, you need to understand what VAR actually does to results. Not in a philosophical sense, but in a practical one. How many goals does it add or remove on average? Which types of teams are most affected? The answers might surprise you, and they can help you make better scoreline picks.

What VAR Actually Changes

VAR intervenes in four categories: goals, penalties, red cards, and mistaken identity. In practice, goal checks and penalty decisions account for the vast majority of overturns. Red card reviews happen less often, and mistaken identity cases are rare.

The net effect on goals is what matters for predictions. In a typical Premier League season, VAR disallows roughly 20-25 goals that would have stood without the technology. It also awards around 10-15 additional penalties that referees missed initially. The maths is straightforward - VAR tends to slightly reduce the total number of goals across a season, because disallowed goals outnumber the extra penalties converted.

That might sound like a small difference spread across 380 matches. But it is not evenly distributed. Some teams and some types of matches are far more affected than others.

Which Teams Are Most Affected

Teams that play a high pressing style with aggressive offside traps tend to have more VAR interventions - both for and against them. Tight offside calls are the single biggest category of VAR overturns, and pressing teams live on that fine line.

The big six clubs tend to be involved in more VAR decisions simply because they dominate possession and create more goal-scoring situations. If you are predicting matches involving the top teams, factor in that there is a higher chance of a goal being chalked off for offside or a penalty being awarded after a pitchside review.

• High-pressing teams: more offside calls, more disallowed goals